Are Investors Undervaluing Rainbow Children’s Medicare Limited (NSE:RAINBOW) By 24%?


How far off is Rainbow Children’s Medicare Limited (NSE:RAINBOW) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we’ll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today’s value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won’t be able to understand it, just read on! It’s actually much less complex than you’d imagine.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

See our latest analysis for Rainbow Children’s Medicare

Crunching The Numbers

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second ‘steady growth’ period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today’s dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Levered FCF (₹, Millions) ₹947.0m ₹951.0m ₹2.56b ₹3.58b ₹4.66b ₹5.73b ₹6.77b ₹7.77b ₹8.73b ₹9.66b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 39.97% Est @ 30.01% Est @ 23.03% Est @ 18.15% Est @ 14.73% Est @ 12.33% Est @ 10.66%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 12% ₹846 ₹758 ₹1.8k ₹2.3k ₹2.6k ₹2.9k ₹3.1k ₹3.1k ₹3.1k ₹3.1k

(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹24b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 6.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today’s value at a cost of equity of 12%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹9.7b× (1 + 6.8%) ÷ (12%– 6.8%) = ₹197b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= ₹197b÷ ( 1 + 12%)10= ₹63b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₹87b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of ₹651, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 24% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
NSEI:RAINBOW Discounted Cash Flow September 20th 2022

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company’s future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Rainbow Children’s Medicare as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 12%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.817. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won’t be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you’d apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company’s valuation. For example, changes in the company’s cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Rainbow Children’s Medicare, there are three relevant items you should look at:

  1. Risks: Case in point, we’ve spotted 1 warning sign for Rainbow Children’s Medicare you should be aware of.
  2. Future Earnings: How does RAINBOW’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Indian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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